EUDA Scenarios toolkit: how to run a scenario workshop for the drugs field

Last updated : 24.09.2025

This toolkit aims to support the EUDA's stakeholders, other actors and researchers in the drugs field to implement their own foresight exercise using existing scenarios to understand the uncertainties of changing framework conditions, analyse respective challenges and implications, and formulate the actions required.

man standing in front of glowing portals

Key phases of the process

  • Phase 1: preparation of the workshop — definition of a clear and realistic aim and identifying key participants to gain useful insights.
  • Phase 2: immersion into scenarios and analysing implications — participants are introduced and immersed into the specific scenarios. Discussion and identification of what changed conditions in the different scenarios mean for drugs, addictions and for respective stakeholder groups.
  • Phase 3: identification of action needs — participants reflect on possible future-oriented actions to tackle upcoming challenges and opportunities for the organisation and for other stakeholders in the drugs and addictions domain.

More information on foresight phases in the user guide.

How to run a scenario workshop: user guide

Download the full guide ‘How to run a scenario workshop using the EUDA framework scenarios for the future of drugs and the addiction field in the EU by 2040’. It includes detailed instructions with all the steps needed in preparing, implementing and documenting such a workshop, as well as tips and tricks for each step, focusing in particular on the delivery of the workshop. The templates needed for the workshop are available for download in the toolkit under Templates.

How to run a scenario workshop (PDF)

Templates

Agenda of the workshop
EUDA scenario cards
Instruction posters
Empty templates
EUDA scenario posters

Resources

The Future(s) of drugs and the addiction field in the EU by 2040 (Foresights Framework Scenarios)
The future of drug monitoring in Europe until 2030: A report summarising the findings and lessons learnt from the EMCDDA’s ‘futures study’
EMCDDA webinar: Preparing for the future — applying a foresight approach in the drugs field
A foresight toolkit for the drugs field

More information

EUDA references:

EUDA (2025), Drugs and addictions in the EU to 2040: EUDA framework scenarios report. 

EMCDDA (2022), How to run a trends workshop: an EMCDDA foresight toolkit for the drugs field. 


References on foresight within the drugs field:

DrugPrep (2024), Preparedness and resilience of EU countries’ drug surveillance systems and effective policymaking.

EP STOA (European Parliament Panel for the Future of Science and Technology) (2017), Technological innovation strategies in substance use disorders.

Global Initiative (2021), The global illicit economy.

Karlsen, J. E., Gual, A. and Anderson, P. (2013), ‘Foresighting addiction and lifestyles in Europe 2030+’ European Journal of Futures Research 1(19), doi: 10.1007/s40309-013-0019-0.

The Lancet (2019), Drug use.

UK Government Office for Science (2005), Drug futures 2025.

Unlu, A., Viskari, I., Rönkä, S. and Tammi, T. (2024), ‘Developing strategic foresight for drug policy: trends, scenarios, and implications’ Drugs: Education, Prevention and Policy, pp. 1–16, doi: 10.1080/09687637.2024.2331574.


References on foresight and scenario planning:

For a short introduction to foresight:
Gidley, J. M. (2017), The future: a very short introduction, Oxford University Press, Oxford, doi: 10.1093/actrade/9780198735281.001.0001.

For an overarching introduction into foresight for policymaking, including scenarios:
Störmer, E., Bontoux, L., Krysztofowicz, M., Florescu, E., Bock, A.-K. and Scapolo, F. (2020), ‘Chapter 12: Foresight – using science and evidence to anticipate and shape the future’, in V. Šucha and M. Sienkiewicz (eds), Science for policy handbook, Elsevier Science, pp. 128-142, doi: 10.1016/B978-0-12-822596-7.00012-7.

For an introduction to scenario planning:
Fink, A. and Schlake, O. (2001), ‘Scenario management—an approach for strategic foresight’, Competitive Intelligence Review 11, pp. 37-45, doi: 10.1002/(SICI)1520-6386(200031)11:1<37::AID-CIR6>3.0.CO;2-W.

Ramirez, R. and Wilkinson, A. (2016), Strategic reframing: the Oxford scenario planning approach, Oxford University Press, Oxford. doi: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198745693.001.0001

Schoemaker, P. J. H. (2022), Advanced introduction to scenario planning. Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham.

For another framework scenario set applied in the European Commission and beyond:
EC JRC; Vesnic Alujevic, L., Muench, S. and Stoermer, E. (2023a), Reference foresight scenarios: Scenarios on the global standing of the EU in 2040, European Commission.

For using scenarios for stress-testing policies or strategies:
EC JRC; Vesnic Alujevic, L. and Stoermer, E. (2023b), Stress-testing of policy options using foresight scenarios: a pilot case, European Commission.


References on foresight realised within the EU system:

EEA (European Environmental Agency) (2024), Imagining sustainable futures for Europe.

EUAA (European Union Agency for Asylum) (2023), The future of international protection in the EU+ in the next 10 years.

Eurofound (2023), The transition to a climate-neutral economy: exploring the socioeconomic impacts.

European Commission (2021), Better regulation: joining forces to make better laws. COM(2021)219. 

European Commission (2024), Strategic foresight.

European Commission, DG Research and Innovation (2024), Foresight in policymaking.

European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC) (2024), Competence Centre on Foresight.

European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC) (2024), EU Policy Lab.

European Union (2024), European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS) - at the heart of EU foresight.

Eye of Europe (2024), Futures4Europe. Platform for the research and innovation foresight community in Europe.

For a repository on foresight-related reports and studies, including scenario studies:
ESPAS (2024), ORBIS Open Repository Base on International Strategic Studies.

References on other foresight toolkits:

European Commission (2023), Better regulation toolbox. ‘Tool#20 Strategic foresight for impact assessments and evaluations’, European Commission.

International Federation of Red Cross, Solferino Academy (2023), The strategic foresight book.

UK Government Office for Science (2024), The futures toolkit for policymakers and analysts. 

UN Futures Lab (2023), UN strategic foresight guide.

UNDP GCPSE (2018), Foresight manual: empowered futures for the 2030 Agenda.

UNDP RBAP (2022), Foresight playbook.

Related toolkits

EUDA Horizon scanning toolkit: how to run a trends workshop for the drugs field
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